One of the persistent and pernicious myths regarding options is that 80% of them expire worthless.  The number belies the fact that most options get closed well before expiration and can create some misleading belief that selling premium is the only sure way to make money trading options. In the current volatile environment, using options on the assumption that they will expire worthless is especially risky and can lead to large losses. 

Given the big price swings, I don’t care how far out-of-the-money or how little time is remaining, there’s no guarantee the option will expire worthless.  And those that stay short on puts or calls trying to collect the last 10c or 15c of premium are creating a situation of extreme asymmetric risk/reward that can result in financial ruin. 

Just this past Thursday during the final hour of regular trading session, “Gilead (GILD)” saw an unusual flurry of options activity with buyers scooping up some 7,500 contracts of the 80 strike calls for a mere $0.15 per contract, which were set to expire the next day. 

Just after the market closed a reporter leaked the early results of GILD’s Remdesivir treatment for the Covid-19 virus in STAT magazine.

GILD shares popped to $86 in the aftermarket and those 80 strike calls went from 15c to $6.00.  Big win for the lucky bunny with a sharp nose.  But huge losses from those that had sold those calls short.  Remember, options are a zero sum game in that for every buyer, there needs to be a seller to create a new contract of open interest. 

Similarly, in the “US Oil Fund (USO)” which saw heavy put selling activity in the $2 through $5 strikes on the belief there must be some floor for the price oil.  It turns out there is a very deep basement as oil’s May futures contract went to negative $37 per barrel. The USO went as low $2.25.   

We’ve all seen the marketing emails and promotional literature that tout 85% win rates and push the concept that selling options allows you to “become the house” in the great option casino analogy.  While I firmly agree that there are distinct advantages to being a net seller of premium, such as the tailwind of time decay and a statistically higher probability of realizing a profit, I think those benefits need to be kept in perspective. 

It’s true that most professional traders prefer positions with a positive theta, which comes selling or being short option premium, but it’s important keep in mind they are usually actively hedging to maintain a non-directional delta neutral portfolio; meaning they must have time decay on their side if they are to make money.  

But unfortunately the professionals approach, along with the myth that 80% of options expire worthless has led many retail traders, especially newcomers, into the false belief that buying options or using debit strategies is for suckers only.  In both cases nothing could be further from the truth. 

The reason the 80% myth persists and is presented this as truth is because only 10% of option contracts are exercised. That is true. But from there can we make the leap that 90% expire worthless?

If we did, we would be ignoring the 60%-65% of option contracts that are closed out prior to expiration.  Remember, an option contract s only created when there is both a willing buyer and seller.  During the course of any given expiration cycle the majority of contracts created, which at some point translates into current open interest, gets closed. 

This is done by both those who initiated the trade as a seller -they look to buy back and close positions at a lower price- and those that initiated positions as buyer and look to close by selling at a higher price.   By the time any Friday expiration comes around the majority remaining open positions are indeed out-of-the-money and left to expire worthless.  But that doesn’t tell the whole story. 

In the end the options market is a closed system and a zero sum game and during the course of any expiration cycle those that initiated positions as buyers probably reap an equal amount of profit, or incur similar losses, as those that initiated trades as a seller or “collector” of premium.  . 

The main difference is options sellers or credit positions tend to have a higher win rate but a lower rate of return.  Meaning buying options might not produce the same consistent profits but offers more attractive risk/reward profiles.  

This is incredibly important for retail investors that want to employ options and the more efficient use of capital that their leverage affords to make directional bets.  The negative impact time decay on a debit position can be greatly reduced by buying options with 60 days or more until expiration or employing spreading strategies.

All told, maybe some 30%-35% of all option contracts ultimately expire worthless.  Not an insignificant amount but far from the “house” odds often touted for can’t miss income streams.  

So, don’t let the myth preclude you from taking advantage of buying options when the proper set up presents itself.  You’ll be able to take profits well before they ever get close to expiring worthless.

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GILD shares were trading at $77.03 per share on Friday afternoon, down $0.75 (-0.96%). Year-to-date, GILD has gained 19.65%, versus a -12.77% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

About the Author: Option Sensei

Steve has more than 30 years of investment experience with an expertise in options trading. He’s written for TheStreet.com, Minyanville and currently for Option Sensei. Learn more about Steve’s background, along with links to his most recent articles. More...

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