What Percentage of Options Expire Worthless?

NYSE: SPY | SPDR S&P 500 News, Ratings, and Charts

SPY – One of the persistent and pernicious myths regarding options is that 80% of all options expire worthless.

Get Free Updates

Join thousands of investors who get the latest news, insights and top rated picks from StockNews.com!

 

One of the persistent and pernicious myths regarding options is that 80% of all options expire worthless.  The number belies the fact that most options get closed well before expiration and can create some misleading belief that selling premium is the only sure way to make money trading options. 

We’ve all seen the marketing emails and promotional literature that tout 85% win rates and push the concept that selling options allows you to “become the house” in the great option casino analogy.  

While I firmly agree that there are distinct advantages to being a net seller of premium, such as the tailwind of time decay, and a statistically higher probability of realizing a profit, I think those benefits need to be kept in perspective. 

While it’s true that most professional traders prefer positions with a positive theta, it’s important to keep in mind they are usually actively hedging to maintain a non-directional delta neutral portfolio; meaning they must have time decay on their side if they are to make money.  

But unfortunately the professionals approach, along with the myth that 80% of options expire worthless, has led many retail traders, especially newcomers, into the false belief that buying options or using debit strategies is for suckers only.  In both cases nothing could be further from the truth. 

The reason the 80% myth persists is because only 10-20% of option contracts are exercised. But from there can we make the leap that 80% expire worthless?

If we did, we would be ignoring the 60%-65% of option contracts that are closed out prior to expiration.  Remember, an option contract is only created when there is both a willing buyer and seller. During the course of any given expiration cycle the majority of contracts created (which at some point translates into current open interest) get closed. 

This is done by both those who initiated the trade as a seller – they look to buy back and close positions at a lower price – and those that initiated positions as buyers and look to close by selling at a higher price.   By the time any Friday expiration comes around the majority remaining open positions are indeed out-of-the-money and left to expire worthless. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. 

In the end the options market is a closed system and a zero sum game and during the course of any expiration cycle those that initiated positions as buyers probably reap an equal amount of profit, or incur similar losses, as those that initiated trades as a seller or “collector” of premium. 

The main difference is options sellers tend to have a higher win rate but a lower rate of return.  Meaning buying options might not produce the same consistent profits but offers more attractive risk/reward profiles.  

This is incredibly important for retail investors that want to trade options and the more efficient use capital that their leverage affords to make directional bets.  The negative impact time decay on a debit position can be greatly reduced by buying options with 60 days or more until expiration or employing spreading strategies.

All told, maybe some 30%-35% of all option contracts created ultimately expire worthless.  Not an insignificant amount but far from the “house” odds often touted for can’t miss income streams.  

So don’t let the myth preclude you from taking advantage of trading options when the proper set up presents itself.  You’ll be able to take profits well before they ever get close to expiring worthless. 

 


SPY shares were trading at $336.13 per share on Tuesday afternoon, up $1.45 (+0.43%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 4.43%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.


About the Author: Steve Smith


Steve has more than 30 years of investment experience with an expertise in options trading. He’s written for TheStreet.com, Minyanville and currently for Option Sensei. Learn more about Steve’s background, along with links to his most recent articles. More...


More Resources for the Stocks in this Article

TickerPOWR RatingIndustry RankRank in Industry
SPYGet RatingGet RatingGet Rating

Get Free Updates

Join thousands of investors who get the latest news, insights and top rated picks from StockNews.com!

Top Stories on StockNews.com

NYSE: ENB | Enbridge Inc  News, Ratings, and Charts

5 Fantastic Dividend Stocks with 5%+ Yields

Big dividend payments is just the start of the attractive investment story for these 5 stocks: ENB, JHG, MGP, PSXP and RIO. Learn more below...
NASDAQ: AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. News, Ratings, and Charts

2 Best Stocks of All Time!

I bought AMZN and BKNG back in 2001 for phenomenal gains to date. Let’s discuss what they have in common and how that will help us find more big winners in the years ahead.
: ACB | Aurora Cannabis Inc. Common Shares News, Ratings, and Charts

The Week's Top News in Cannabis Stocks

A once very bearish analyst Bill Kirk at MKM Partners changed his tone immediately last week after CGC’s earnings
NYSE: GLD | SPDR Gold Trust News, Ratings, and Charts

Are Gold (GLD) Prices Heading Toward $1,680?

Today's featured article examines whether gold (GLD) prices are headed towards $1,680. Continue reading for all these important gold investor details.
NASDAQ: NFLX | Netflix, Inc. News, Ratings, and Charts

2 Tech Names To Watch If Market Has a Correction

It is important to be aware of some of the top earnings growers where money might find a new home after a correction, and two names fit this bill accordingly

Read More Stories


More SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) News View All

Event/Date Symbol News Detail Start Price End Price Change POWR Rating
Loading, please wait...
View All SPY News
Page generated in 1.2024 seconds.