Ardagh Group S.A. manufactures and supplies glass and metal packaging products. Its products include conical, rectangular, and oval shaped steel and aluminum cans for multi and single-serve use; glass bottles and jars; steel and aluminum aerosols; single-serve bowls; kegs; and custom products, including cigar boxes, rectangular steel boxes, peanut cans, and coffee cans. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Luxembourg.
ARD Price Forecast Based on DCF Valuation
DCF Fair Value Target:
We started the process of determining a valid price forecast for Ardagh Group SA with a discounted cash flow analysis -- the results of which can be found in the table below. To summarize, we found that Ardagh Group SA ranked in the 23th percentile in terms of potential gain offered. We should note, though, that all scenearios modelled for this stock suggest it is overvalued. In terms of the factors that were most noteworthy in this DCF analysis for ARD, they are:
The stock's equity weight, or the proportion of capital from equity relative to debt, is 33. Notably, its equity weight is greater than just 21.48% of US equities in the Consumer Cyclical sector yielding a positive free cash flow.
Its compound free cash flow growth rate, as measured over the past 2.98 years, is -0.24% -- higher than only 7.56% of stocks in our DCF forecasting set.
Ardagh Group SA's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 6%; for context, that number is higher than merely 5.44% of tickers in our DCF set.
Terminal Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow
Return Relative to Current Share Price
For other companies in the Consumer Cyclical that have a similar discounted cashflow valuation profile (and ensuing price forecasts) as ARD, try BBBY, CROX, ROL, GTX, and LUVU.
Ardagh Group ([[ARD]] +4.2%) has priced an issue of €790M of 2.125% senior secured notes due 2026 at 96.5%, representing a yield of 2.74%, mirroring the terms of 2.125% senior secured notes due 2026, issued in August 2019. Proceeds will be used to redeem in full the €741M 2.750% senior...
Ardagh Group (ARD) to issue €350M of 2.125% senior secured notes due 2026, non-fungible mirror notes to the €439M 2.125% senior secured notes due 2026, issued on August 12, 2019. Net proceeds will be used to redeem a portion of the €741M 2.750% senior secured notes due 2024, as well...
Ardagh Group ("Ardagh") has today priced an issue of €790 million 2.125% Senior Secured Notes due 2026 (the "Notes") at 96.5, representing a yield of 2.74%. The Notes mirror the terms of our 2.125% Senior Secured Notes due 2026, issued in August 2019.
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today assigned a B1 rating to the proposed E350 million senior secured notes due 2026 issued by Ardagh Packaging Finance plc, a subsidiary of ARD Finance S.A. (Ardagh). ARD Finance S.A. is the top entity with rated debt within the restricted group of Luxembourg-based metal and glass packaging manufacturer Ardagh Group S.A. All other ratings of Ardagh, including the B3 corporate family rating (CFR), B3-PD probability of default rating (PDR) and existing instrument ratings of its subsidiaries remain unchanged.
Ardagh Group ("Ardagh") has today launched an offering of €350 million 2.125% Senior Secured Notes due 2026 (the "Notes"). The Notes are non-fungible mirror notes to the €439 million 2.125% Senior Secured Notes due 2026, issued on August 12, 2019.