ConocoPhillips explores, produces, transports and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and natural gas liquids. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Houston, Texas.
COP Price Forecast Based on DCF Valuation
DCF Fair Value Target:
The table below illustrates the output of a discounted cash flow forecast using a variety of scenarios for Conocophillips. To summarize, we found that Conocophillips ranked in the 6th percentile in terms of potential gain offered. Our DCF analysis suggests the stock is overvalued by about 97%. As for the metrics that stood out in our discounted cash flow analysis of Conocophillips, consider:
The company's compound free cash flow growth rate over the past 3.5 years comes in at -0.18%; that's greater than only 8.58% of US stocks we're applying DCF forecasting to.
Conocophillips's effective tax rate, as measured by taxes paid relative to net income, is at 111 -- greater than 97.59% of US stocks with positive free cash flow.
Relative to other stocks in its sector (Energy), Conocophillips has a reliance on debt greater than just 23.32% of them.
Terminal Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow
Return Relative to Current Share Price
NVGS, VLO, APA, FI, and PTR can be thought of as valuation peers to COP, in the sense that they are in the Energy sector and have a similar price forecast based on DCF valuation.
A new president is in the White House, a new "green energy" policy mandate is ascendant in Washington -- and that's not looking like good news for oil stocks on Thursday. As of 1:40 p.m. EST, shares of oil giant ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) are down 5.4%, while smaller oil and gas producers Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) and Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) are down 10.2% and 13%, respectively. Why are oil stocks down?
The fossil-fuel divestiture movement grabbed headlines in December when New York’s state comptroller said the $226 billion New York State pension fund plans to drop many of its fossil-fuel stocks in the next five years and sell shares in other companies that contribute to global warming. The fund owns stakes in big oil — stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) as of Sept. 30, according to Holdings Channel — and shunning fossil-fuel investment is a hallmark of longtime socially responsible mutual funds.
ConocoPhillips completed the acquisition of shale producer Concho Resources after receiving shareholder approval of both companies. Shares of the oil producer fell 5.7% on Friday as crude oil prices slipped. Back in Oct. 2020, ConocoPhillips had agreed to buy rival Concho in an all-stock deal worth $9.7 billion. Per the merger agreement terms, Concho shareholders will receive 1.46 shares of ConocoPhillips common stock for each share held. ConocoPhillips’ (COP) CEO Ryan Lance said, “This acquisition results in the combination of two premier companies that can lead the structural change for our vital industry that’s critical to investors.