Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET) Social Stream
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$FET Instant gratification via price appreciation would be nice but part of me hopes share price stays depressed for a few more quarters/next 18 months. If we could get a few quarters of strong earning/cash flow without uptick above the debt conversion level we could see some incredible value added via refinancing of debt.ConcentratedPositions, published April 15, 2021
Technically they could refinance at any time now if they wanted to pay the interest up to Aug 2022 (so principal + ~$27M) per the new debt prospectus.
That almost seems like a no brainer given the incredible amount of value that could be added to equity holders in the process. It would essentially eliminate 5.55M shares @$27 a share. ($150M of the new issue is eligible to convert).
If we can stay below $25 for a while I think it becomes likely if EBITDA goes positive to the extent they have foreshadowed and CF stays where it has been and undoubtedly grows through YE.
Food for thought. Not always bad when price doesn't move but business results are solid.
Other Notable StockTweets About FET
$FET I'd like to think we can go +15 to the rig count tomorrow. Long week this week after reporting +13 on Thursday last week.
We're closing in on the 450 rig count number and have been given pretty good expectations of ~$30M EBITDA at that level.
Rig count should grow quickly from here to year end. My thought is that we realistically should see a level where fet is making $50M of annualized EBITDA (they indicated at 500 rigs $48M would be the high end of EBITDA expectations. I think hitting 550 rigs this year is very possible.
If conservative expectations hold I think $500M market cap after debt conversion ($50M or less of net debt at that point) puts us in the mid to upper $40s by year end. Tons of upside optionality in there as well. I suspect Q1 is going to look much better than they have lead us to believe.
Still incredible that market cap is lower than the current cash balance. I think a quarter or two of positive earnings sling shots us upward.