HubSpot Inc. provides a cloud-based inbound marketing and sales software platform for businesses, consisting of integrated applications, such as social media, search engine optimization, blogging, Website content management, marketing automation, email, and analytics and reporting. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
HUBS Price Forecast Based on DCF Valuation
DCF Fair Value Target:
We started the process of determining a valid price forecast for Hubspot Inc with a discounted cash flow analysis -- the results of which can be found in the table below. To summarize, we found that Hubspot Inc ranked in the 0th percentile in terms of potential gain offered. We should note, though, that all scenearios modelled for this stock suggest it is overvalued. The most interesting components of our discounted cash flow analysis for Hubspot Inc ended up being:
In the past 3.52 years, Hubspot Inc has a compound free cash flow growth rate of -0.13%; that's higher than just 6.69% of free cash flow generating stocks in the Technology sector.
The business' balance sheet suggests that 4% of the company's capital is sourced from debt; this is greater than only 16.08% of the free cash flow producing stocks we're observing.
Hubspot Inc's interest coverage rate -- a measure of gross earnings relative to interest payments -- comes in at -1.13. This coverage rate is greater than that of only 19.87% of stocks we're observing for the purpose of forecasting via discounted cash flows.
Terminal Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow
Return Relative to Current Share Price
For other companies in the Technology that have a similar discounted cashflow valuation profile (and ensuing price forecasts) as HUBS, try CHNG, CHWY, CRNC, CSPI, and CVET.
Very rarely do I commend software companies that have zoomed to all-time highs and are trading at relatively expensive valuations, but HubSpot (HUBS) is one of those rare exceptions for me. The unconventional CRM vendor, best known for its focus on "inbound marketing" - or the process of winning customers...
Gary Alexander on Seeking Alpha | January 26, 2021
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