Leading wound care specialist Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (ORGO) surpassed Wall Street’s expectations in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. The company reported revenue of $109.98 million, well above the analysts’ estimate of $100.23 million. This figure also outpaced their guidance, which projected revenue between $98 million and $104 million, driven by a surge in momentum from February into March.

Building on the momentum, Organogenesis forecasts positive growth for the year ending December 31, 2024. The company expects net revenue to range between $445 million and $470 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 3% to 9% compared to the $433.1 million reported for 2023. However, the profitability outlook is mixed, with expected adjusted net income (loss) ranging from ($8.1) million to $7.1 million and adjusted EBITDA between $15.8 million and $35.0 million.

While revenue growth is strong, Organogenesis has been experiencing an unsettling string of earnings contractions, which could pose a challenge in the near term. ORGO’s net loss per share was $0.02, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.03.

Shares of ORGO have gained 1.5% over the past month to close the last trading session at $2.70. However, the stock has plunged 21.9% over the past year and 33.7% year-to-date.

Let’s look at factors that could influence ORGO’s performance in the upcoming months.

Promising Progress in ReNu Phase III Clinical Trials

Organogenesis has made notable progress with its ReNu program, which aims to manage knee osteoarthritis (OA) symptoms. Recently, the company shared positive top-line results from its first Phase III clinical trial, achieving the primary endpoint with a p-value of 0.0177. The trial demonstrated a significant reduction in knee OA pain over six months compared to a saline control group.

By 2027, an estimated 34.4 million Americans will be affected by knee OA. ReNu could offer a non-surgical pain management option, particularly for the most severe cases, representing around 5 million people. If approved, ReNu would be the only FDA-approved biologic intra-articular injection for this purpose, marking a significant advancement in the treatment of knee OA.

Mixed Financial Performance

For the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, ORGO’s net revenues increased 2.2% year-over-year to $109.98 million. Revenue from Advanced Wound Care rose 3% from the prior year to $103.9 million, while the net revenue for Surgical and Sports Medicine products was $6.1 million, down 9% year-over-year. Its gross profit grew marginally from the year-ago value to $81.28 million.

ORGO’s loss from operations narrowed 3.7% from the previous year’s quarter to $3.85 million. The company’s net loss came in at $2.10 million compared to $2.97 million last year, while its net loss per share remained flat year-over-year at $0.02. However, ORGO recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $2.55 million in the same quarter.

As of March 31, 2024, Organogenesis’ cash and cash equivalents stood at $88.63 million, compared to $103.84 million as of December 31, 2023.

Mixed Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect ORGO’s EPS to increase 5.7% year-over-year to $114.73 million for the third quarter ending September 2024. For the fiscal year ending December 2024, its revenue is expected to reach $453.76 million, registering a year-over-year growth of 4.8%.

However, the company is estimated to post a loss per share of $0.01 in the current quarter and remain negative for the fiscal year 2024. Nonetheless, ORGO has an impressive earnings surprise history, surpassing the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.

Discounted Valuation

In terms of forward EV/Sales, ORGO is trading at 0.88x, which is 74.2% lower than the industry average of 3.42x. Similarly, the stock’s forward Price/Sales multiple of 0.82 is 76.9% lower than the industry average of 3.54x. Additionally, the stock’s 2.64x forward Price/Book is 1.2% below the industry average of 2.67x.

POWR Ratings Reflect Uncertainty

ORGO’s mixed fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. The stock has an overall rating of C, which translates to Neutral in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings are calculated by taking into account 118 different factors, with each factor weighted to an optimal degree.

Our proprietary rating system also evaluates each stock based on eight distinct categories. ORGO has an A grade in Value, which aligns with its lower-than-industry valuation. However, with a five-year beta of 1.66, the stock has earned a grade C for Stability.

Within the Biotech industry, ORGO is ranked #47 out of 342 stocks.

Beyond what I have stated above, we have also given ORGO grades for Growth, Momentum, Sentiment, and Quality. Get all ORGO ratings here.

Bottom Line

Organogenesis is an anomaly among small biotechs, achieving modest revenues despite inconsistent earnings and a promising catalyst in ReNu. However, this inconsistency in earnings has proven to be a significant stumbling block. While optimism about its long-term potential is contingent upon securing FDA approval for ReNu, recent mixed financial performance and an uncertain near-term outlook raise concerns.

Given these uncertainties and the volatility typically associated with biotech investments, waiting for a better entry point in this stock seems wise now.

How Does Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (ORGO) Stack Up Against Its Peers?

Given its near-term uncertain prospects, the odds of ORGO outperforming in the weeks and months ahead are compromised. However, there are many industry peers with much more impressive POWR Ratings. So, consider these three A (Strong Buy) stocks from the Biotech industry: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd. (NPPNY), and Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited (SBHMY).

To explore more A and B-rated biotech stocks, click here.

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ORGO shares were trading at $2.74 per share on Monday afternoon, down $0.06 (-2.14%). Year-to-date, ORGO has declined -33.01%, versus a 15.51% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

About the Author: Shweta Kumari

Shweta's profound interest in financial research and quantitative analysis led her to pursue a career as an investment analyst. She uses her knowledge to help retail investors make educated investment decisions. More...

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