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$DHT $NAT $FRO interesting piece from EURN call earlier that makes you think about illicit trade a bit further. Some say those on the illicit trade will never be able to trade legal again. But let’s just say those will be scrapped.CapitalMarkets22, published August 12, 2021
EURN seems to think the Iran and Venezuelan trade is almost at full capacity. With low spots the back half of 2021 could hold surprises in scrapping. When ship owners have to do dry docking and go through the processes to bid for cargo they might just save the cash and scrap their rust buckets.
But the most interesting part is the illicit trade is almost at capacity for current vessels trading illicit. If that is the case then that leaves legal trade owners one option and that’s to scrap. I’m sure at some point the inflection happens and this is true.
Regardless I do think if Sanctions are lifted that could possibly open the floodgates to scrapping since legal ships will be racing illicit ships to capture those available scrap prices.
Food for thought