Golden Ocean Group Limited (GOGL) Social Stream

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$GOGL From Cleaves' chart o' the week:

Our satellite data currently shows only 39 Capes en route for Brazil over the next 30 days, 48 fewer vessels than in mid-August of last year and comparable to early April of this year (41 vessels) after which TC rates on the Brazil-China route gained 93% to $38.5k/d over the next 30 days.

Another figure that is comparable with April is the monthly run-rate. As of 8/9, Brazil had exported 7.5mt of iron ore. This represents a monthly run-rate of 26mt based on calendar days, which is the same as April of this year. However, we see this run-rate significantly increasing going forward and have forecasted total exports of 94mt for 3Q21E, implying an average of 30mt of iron ore exports in Aug21E and Sept21E.

Increased exports combined with a shorter tonnage list would increase fleet utilization and might propel spot rates even higher going forward. Although near-term forecasting is notoriously challenging, we see potential for further upside ahead.