Harley-Davidson designs, manufactures, and sells wholesale street-legal Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services. The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
HOG Price Forecast Based on DCF Valuation
DCF Fair Value Target:
Below please find a table outlining a discounted cash flow forecast for HOG, in which we model out valuation assuming a variety of terminal growth rates. To summarize, we found that Harley-Davidson Inc ranked in the 68th percentile in terms of potential gain offered. Moreover, under all the scenarios we modelled, the output consistently forecasted positive returns. The most interesting components of our discounted cash flow analysis for Harley-Davidson Inc ended up being:
Its compound free cash flow growth rate, as measured over the past 5.54 years, is -0.06% -- higher than merely 21.59% of stocks in our DCF forecasting set.
Harley-Davidson Inc's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 5%; for context, that number is higher than only 0.66% of tickers in our DCF set.
The company's cost of debt, derived from its interest coverage, tax rate, and market capitalization, is greater than merely 0% of stocks in its sector (Consumer Cyclical).
Terminal Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow
Return Relative to Current Share Price
EAT, SMRT, SGMS, FBHS, and CTRN can be thought of as valuation peers to HOG, in the sense that they are in the Consumer Cyclical sector and have a similar price forecast based on DCF valuation.