Mattel offers dolls and accessories, vehicles and play sets, and games and puzzles under the Mattel Girls & Boys brands, including Barbie, Monster High, Disney Classics, Ever After High, Little Mommy, Polly Pocket, Hot Wheels, Matchbox, CARS, Disney Planes, BOOMco, Radica, Toy Story, Max Steel, WWE Wrestling, and Batman. The company was founded in 1945 and is based in El Segundo, California.
MAT Price Forecast Based on DCF Valuation
DCF Fair Value Target:
We started the process of determining a valid price forecast for Mattel Inc with a discounted cash flow analysis -- the results of which can be found in the table below. To summarize, we found that Mattel Inc ranked in the 7th percentile in terms of potential gain offered. Our DCF analysis suggests the stock is overvalued by about 96%. As for the metrics that stood out in our discounted cash flow analysis of Mattel Inc, consider:
Its compound free cash flow growth rate, as measured over the past 5.69 years, is -0.24% -- higher than only 6.33% of stocks in our DCF forecasting set.
Mattel Inc's effective tax rate, as measured by taxes paid relative to net income, is at 18 -- greater than 70.48% of US stocks with positive free cash flow.
The weighted average cost of capital for the company is 10. This value is greater than 59.38% stocks in the Consumer Cyclical sector that generate free cash flow.
Terminal Growth Rate in Free Cash Flow
Return Relative to Current Share Price
For other companies in the Consumer Cyclical that have a similar discounted cashflow valuation profile (and ensuing price forecasts) as MAT, try CBRL, JAKK, MLCO, DBI, and DIS.
Mattel (MAT) shares have had a hard time adjusting to the SARS-CoV-2 crisis, which is no surprise. After trading near a 52-week high back in the spring, the stock went below $7 per share back in the spring. The market is keeping this one in a tight range, between $6.53...
Steven Mallas on Seeking Alpha | September 29, 2020
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