(Please enjoy the latest investment insights from the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio).

The timing of our move into oil may look suspect today. But if you think that we have heard the last from Iran, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Beyond Iran we will broaden out our discussion to the 2 vital economic reports this week. Plus some good news to share from HELE as they kicked off earnings season with a monster beat and 6% after hours rally.

Market Commentary

We had the biggest turnout ever for the 1/6 RTR Members Only Webinar. That’s because we covered some vital topics like my 2020 Stock Market Outlook, the trouble with the Presidential Election, what happens to stocks if we go to war with Iran and much more.

Watch webinar here!

Now onto the weekly commentary…

I admit that I was fairly impressed with the President’s speech today on the Iran situation. It was very tempered with ample olive branches for those who want to grab them. But also firm resolve if Iran takes another shot at US interests.

However, I do not believe for a second the claim that “Iran appears to be standing down.”

The one thing that is predictable about Iran is that they are unpredictable. I guess the same could be said for the negotiating methods of the Trump administration (just ask China). And thus, I do not believe that tensions in the middle east are over. And thus still firmly stand behind this morning’s trades to get exposure to energy and downside protection from TZA.

The logic for these trades was clearly spelled out in this mornings trade alert. I admit that at this second the moves look foolish…but the party ain’t over. In fact, it may not take long at all til the next salvo of words or artillery are fired to have those positions moving back into positive territory. (And as I put commentary to bed I just saw a fresh headline pop up that rockets were fired into the Baghdad green zone which hoses the US embassy.)

The same way that the market moved with every wink, whisper and nod from the China trade deal…I suspect the same will be true with the Iran conflict as the prime market mover. So we will continue to follow the action. For now, I believe our recent moves have us properly balancing the risks out there…while still having plenty of sponges in the portfolio to soak up more market upside (like HELE which crushed earnings this evening and up 6%…more on that later).

Let’s now turn to the economic front as we did have some meaty reports this week. On the down side was another glum showing for ISM Manufacturing which took a step back from 48.1 to 47.2.

Unfortunately the forward looking New Orders component is no better at 46.8. Why it continues to show results that are so much worse than the 52.5 from PMI Manufacturing Flash from earlier in the week is an oddity that I am tired of trying to figure out. But overall the market continues to pay NO attention to this glaring weakness. Likely because services and the consumer are so strong leading to healthy enough GDP growth. (GDP Now for Q4 sitting at +2.3% estimate).

ISM Services on Tuesday was singing a sweeter tune as it dialed up from 53.9 to 55.0. This is the strongest reading in 4 months and likely points to another impressive holiday shopping season in the States.

Portfolio Update

I noticed when I put in my most recent trades that only 50% of RTR members have given us their mobile phone # to send text alerts when we have new trades. This is truly the fastest way to get updated. So if you have not signed up for this vital feature of the RTR service, then do that now by going here and adding your mobile phone #: https://members.stocknews.com/my-profile/

We had a nice run in Q4 ending the year strong. Gladly we came out of the gate with gusto on the first trading day of the new year. Yes, the S&P was up +0.84% that day. But under the surface smaller and riskier stocks were actually in the red. Given how many stocks we have in that group, then our +0.96% showing on the day was a great way to start the year. (BABA, FCN, HELE and JCOM were the stars of the show).

The good times continued from there with outperformances day after day. Even the early entry on GUSH this morning couldn’t stop the profit train from rolling in. All in all we were close to topping the S&P by a full 1% to start the year.

Now let’s turn our attention to some of the noteworthy picks in the portfolio. Note that I spent nearly 15 minutes on the most recent webinar talking about each and every position. I highly recommend you check that out now if you have not already. That starts 30 minutes and 30 seconds into the video. (watch here)

Now let’s check out the specifics on our individual positions.

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SPY shares were trading at $326.09 per share on Thursday afternoon, up $1.64 (+0.51%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 1.31%, versus a 1.31% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

About the Author: Steve Reitmeister

Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks. More...

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